To be clear, the writers here support more officers on the street, but let's play devil's advocate for a moment.
Check out the image below. On the left are all reported incidents of robbery 2016 (Jan 1 to Sept 8). On the right are all reported incidents of robbery for 2017 (Jan 1 to Sept 8).
They look practically identical - that's because there has been no decrease in robberies 2017 YTD over last year. In 2016 through Sept 8, there were 7,809 reported robberies, in 2017 there have been 7,851 reported.
When we look at 2017 compared to 2015, we had over 1,680 more robberies this YTD. But how many officers do we have today compared to two years ago? Today Chicago employs 387 MORE officers than it did in 2015.
Let's go back even further: In 2010 Chicago had seen 9,477 robberies through Sept 8, that's 1,626 MORE robberies than we've seen today, and at that time we had 12,515 officers. So in 2010 we had 530 MORE officers than we have today.
Finally, take a look at 2008: In 2008, there were 10,800 robberies and 13,359 CPD officers. Compared to today, that's 2,949 MORE robberies and 1,374 MORE police officers.
So are more officers the answer? From this data, it seems to appear when there are more officers employed, MORE robberies occur!
Of course we don't believe that, but perhaps it's worth considering this: Even if somehow we manage to add 1,000 more police officers in the next 15 months, it may very well NOT result in a decrease in violent crimes, such as robbery.
This rallying cry, "More cops!" is almost like saying, "We need more doctors!" as a cure-all solution to the problems of the US healthcare system. Maybe the truth is we all need to brace ourselves and set our expectations low going forward.
Why say that? Look at these precipitators of crime (just a handful of many examples):
- Recent policy changes made from an agreement between the ACLU and the City of Chicago Police Dept
- The election of Cook County's top prosecutor who ran with one of her objectives to "being fair" to criminals and who overwhelmingly won the vote
- Politicians and others fanning the flames of the anti-police movement
- Black Lives Matter activists, like founder Alicia Garza, supporting the absurd notion we should abolish the police and that police are "systematically and intentionally" targeting people for demise solely for their skin color
Why are there so few pointing out THESE as factors which contribute to Chicago's current increase in crime? One thing we can be sure of is these problems (unfortunately) will not go away even if we do hire 1,000 (or 2,000 or 3,000) more cops.
There is no simply or 1 solution. The facts are interesting. In the 014th district, officers are spread very thin in the district. Residents should ask to see the sheets and compare them to some southside districts (and ask yourself, where is my property tax money going to). The 014th districts needs more officers to fill empty teams/units, such as the tact teams, Robbery teams, Wicker Park bars team, Rapids and park details (606 trails). Residents ask in the next CAPS meeting, why doesn't you neighborhood have specialized units in your 014th district.
ReplyDeleteThank you for--and best of luck with--this new blog. I look forward to making it a regular part of my on-line reading.
ReplyDeleteI completely agree with your point that the ACLU accord, Kim Foxx, and the never-ending stream of politicians and organizations feeding the local/national anti-police sentiment, have collectively had a negative effect on policing and on the safety of law-abiding citizens.
These and other factors have caused many police to go fetal in order to protect their lives, their families, and their ability to earn a living. One of the predictable consequences of the ACLU accord and the anti-police sentiment has been to embolden criminals--contributing to the 24% increase in violent crime that Chicago saw in 2016.
Separately, am I not correct, for each of the following reasons, to take exception with the police data you're using?
1. The City of Chicago is notoriously opaque about the number of officers it employs. Rahm, Eddie Johnson, and Garry McCarthy couldn't/can't stop quoting the fictitious "12,500 sworn officers" figure when even the numbers you were provided show it's been at least seven years since that number MIGHT HAVE last been accurate.
2. There is a large historical difference between the number of officers on the city payroll and the number of officers patrolling the city's streets. Included in this difference are sworn officers on medical leave, in administrative positions, etc.
3. My sources--which include elected officials, FOP officials, and CPD command level officers--all peg the number of active-duty sworn officers at or below 10,000.
4. Rahm's promise to hire "1,000 new officers (over two years)," was not only a complete fiction but also below the projected attrition rate for 2017 and 2018.
5. The shortage of patrol officers is so acute that in 2016, the CPD spent $165 million on overtime--a whopping 43% increase over the $115 million it spent on OT in 2015. That shortage is further evidenced by the creation of, and dramatic increase in the number of, "Radio Assignments Pending (RAPs)" showing, literally, that there aren't enough radio cars available to handle the 911 emergency calls received in the districts.
6. The distribution of patrol officers across the districts also is a factor in public safety. Many have been redeployed from historically safer districts to the south and west side shooting galleries, creating vacuums now being exploited by street thugs--and documented not by traditional media outlets but by blogs like yours, the excellent Crime in Wrigleyville & Boystown blog, and others.
Your point is certainly valid that "more cops" alone is not the answer. But it would be a mistake for anyone to read your post and conclude that we don't need more cops. Instead, we need more cops AND we need to eliminate the roadblocks that now prevent them from legally and effectively doing their jobs.
Thanks and, again, best of luck with the blog.
Thank you for sharing this info. Please continue!
ReplyDeleteWhy? To answer your last question. Because so many on the left will NEVER admit to their mistakes and failed policies.
ReplyDeleteExcellent info, but please adjust your font size. I'm old and can't read small print well.
ReplyDeleteYou can zoom the browser. Most browsers it's Control + and -.
DeleteWe need more more CCW and less no carry areas, which only serve to INCREASE crime.
ReplyDeleteLet us not forget the "hard working", "fact gathering", local media whores that exclusively report what the twerp murder mayor allows...
ReplyDeleteMore officers means more police to get to a call in a timely manner and take a report before the victim leaves...plain and simple
ReplyDeleteHow many victims got tired of waiting to make a report? You just might want to consider that more cops result in more reports/arrests........
ReplyDelete